Friday, February 29, 2008

Bad Arguments Against the Candidates, Will they influence the election?

As I was deciding which candidate would get my support in the Democratic primaries, I heard folks make this argument against Hillary Clinton:
She is divisive. People hate her. If we nominate her, the right wing will be foaming at the mouth and use the dirty tricks of the 90's, so she should not get the nomination.

More recently, I have heard Obama's supporters make similar claims. i.e. Hillary can't bring the country together because so many conservatives hate her. Barack can bring the country together. In fact, this idea of "unity under Obama" seems to be one of the most powerful arguments in his favor, after his inspirational oratory.

I think in the last few days we are seeing what the right wing is going to be doing to candidate Barack Obama. Radio personality Bill Cunningham attacked Obama as a 'Chicago Hack' and repeatedly used his middle name. Afterwards he disingenuously claimed that he meant nothing by it. Hogwash. Of course Cunningham and the others who are doing this intend to inflame racism and suspicion of Muslims, and imply that by virtue of his name, Senator Obama has some connection to "our enemies in the Islamic world." A Republican member of Congress appeared on MSNBC earlier this week, and attacked Obama's patriotism because Obama does not wear an American flag lapel pin. Host Dan Abrams immediately pointed out his hypocrisy given that the congressman himself was not wearing one. Now, McCain distanced himself from Cunningham (but, so far not from Rep. Jack Kingston), but this is not going to stop the 'haters' like Cuningham, like Rush Limbaugh from proceeding to cast these aspersions on Obama.

So, I ask you, can Obama be the messenger of Hope and bringer of unity, if these hateful right wingers are going to impugn his patriotism at every turn? They will point to the misinterpreted 'no-hand-over-his-heart' photo, gleefully display the picture of Obama wearing the garb of his father's homeland, crow about the flag lapel pin, and on and on. Even if McCain distances himself from this at every turn, it will not matter. The public will be barraged with these hateful messages and lies. How, then, can we Democrats get our positive message out and win the election? For all those who are excited about Senator Obama's message of Hope and Unity, please be prepared to have to fight a very different battle: a battle over lapel pins and patriotism. I've already found myself telling people that Obama is not a muslim (in response to the infamous email going around) and then doing my best Seinfeld "not that there's anything wrong with that."
We Democrats may want to wage a campaign about Hope and Unity, but I fear "the right wing freakshow" has a very different battle in mind.

I do not present this as a reason why we should not nominate Obama. I rejected this argument when I heard its corollary against my first choice candidate, Senator Clinton, and I reject it now. I do want my friends who do support Obama to be ready for the kind of campaign we are going to have. Those who chose Obama because they wanted to avoid a 'dirty' or divisive campaign need to know the politics of America in a post-Bush/Cheney world won't allow it. Prepare for battle.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Hillary Gets Key Ohio Endorsement

From this week's Akron-Beacon Journal (and Ohio.com):

For President

Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary

Published on Sunday, Feb 24, 2008

Listen to her closing words in the CNN debate on Thursday evening, and Hillary Clinton offered a concise reminder of the virtues of her candidacy, and the difficulty facing her campaign. No matter what happens, she relayed, the country will be best served by the Democratic Party coming together and achieving victory in November.

Hard to imagine now, even with primaries looming in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, that Barack Obama will not be the party's nominee for president. The crowds greeting him have been large and enthusiastic. He has captured 10 consecutive states, in primaries and caucuses, in the north, south, east and west, and by wide margins, eroding the base of much Clinton support.

Many Ohioans surely will join the chant ''Yes, we can!'' in the coming days. They may do so thinking about ''electability.'' This editorial page has in mind the question of which candidate would make the stronger president, which candidate is more prepared for all the Oval Office presents its occupant, and the many challenges before the country at home and abroad.

We recommend a vote for Hillary Clinton in the March 4 presidential primary.

Her many critics, in the media and elsewhere, point to the struggling campaign, most notably, the muddled messages. They point to Bill Clinton playing too prominent, and clumsy, a role. Even admirers ask: Does the country really want to go from Bush to Clinton to Bush to Clinton, potentially for 28 years? Or return to the political wars of the 1990s?

The regrettable thing is, too little time in this campaign has been spent acknowledging the past eight years that Clinton has spent representing New York in the U.S. Senate. She has moved beyond those harshly partisan times. She has worked effectively with Democrats and Republicans, even those who once pushed for the impeachment of her husband. She has won praise from the Pentagon for her work on the Armed Services Committee.

Many military officers recognize she would be a formidable commander in chief.

Her resilience has deserved more attention, too. Many Clinton watchers point to her grit. There is something larger at work: Her temperament stands out as one of her finest qualities. Lose in a bid for sweeping reform of health care, and Clinton comes back with a program less ambitious but still substantial, achieving broader insurance coverage for children. The 1990s taught lessons, Clinton shedding much self-righteousness, acquiring the skills to navigate successfully in Washington.

Most impressive is her keen intelligence. No candidate in this race, Republican or Democrat, can match her command of issues, foreign and domestic. Consider health care and education, two of the country's highest priorities. Clinton speaks to each with depth and clarity, articulating, say, the value of universal health coverage or ways to repair the troubled student loan program.

This race hardly has left room for fiscal discipline, amid all the promises and plans. Yet Clinton has demonstrated the most restraint. She articulates an approach overseas that involves this country playing a leading role, yet finding ways to work with others, understanding that issues such as combating terrorism, curbing climate change and opening trade require global strategies.

If her vote authorizing war in Iraq has harmed her candidacy in this primary season, she has been the more thoughtful and honest about the road ahead.

Many people in the Barack Obama camp cite his superb campaign organization as evidence of his capacity to do more than deliver inspiring words. They are correct. Obama can point to impressive achievements in the Illinois Senate. He played a leading role via style and substance. He has made a strong start in the U.S. Senate. Yet there remains so much that is uncertain and unformed about Obama. Bill Clinton was looking for a tactical advantage when cautioned that electing Obama would be a ''roll of the dice.'' There is an element of truth in his words.

For many Democrats, obviously, the risk is well worth it. It is hard not to be stirred by his promises of ''change,'' of breaking tired patterns in the halls of Washington. That said, once in office, the words give way to decisions, and all the fine talk loses its luster as a president struggles with deeds.

One frequently noted virtue of Hillary Clinton is that she is battle-tested, ready for whatever the Republicans throw at their opponent. Actually, she is tested in a more telling way. Neither John McCain, nor Barack Obama, nor Hillary Clinton has much direct management experience. Still, of the three, Clinton has been on the scene in the governor's office and in the White House, alert to the pace and the breadth of the job. That makes a difference. She understands well the unique demands of the presidency.

Obama presents himself as a transforming figure. Actually, his campaign approach is familiar, just as his proposals are more conventional, more candy-for-everyone than he suggests, his recent pandering on the trade issue especially disappointing. He is running as the classic outsider. The truth is, Washington won't be changed in a dramatic way. Partisan clashes are expected, even promoted.

If both candidates represent a certain change, one seeking to become the first black president, the other the first woman president, the country is best-served by the president with the knowledge, savvy and temperament to push Washington forward, building coalitions at the political center. Barack Obama carries much promise of doing so. Hillary Clinton is the more proven leader.

Listen to her closing words in the CNN debate on Thursday evening, and Hillary Clinton offered a concise reminder of the virtues of her candidacy, and the difficulty facing her campaign. No matter what happens, she relayed, the country will be best served by the Democratic Party coming together and achieving victory in November.

Hard to imagine now, even with primaries looming in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, that Barack Obama will not be the party's nominee for president. The crowds greeting him have been large and enthusiastic. He has captured 10 consecutive states, in primaries and caucuses, in the north, south, east and west, and by wide margins, eroding the base of much Clinton support.

Many Ohioans surely will join the chant ''Yes, we can!'' in the coming days. They may do so thinking about ''electability.'' This editorial page has in mind the question of which candidate would make the stronger president, which candidate is more prepared for all the Oval Office presents its occupant, and the many challenges before the country at home and abroad.

We recommend a vote for Hillary Clinton in the March 4 presidential primary.

Her many critics, in the media and elsewhere, point to the struggling campaign, most notably, the muddled messages. They point to Bill Clinton playing too prominent, and clumsy, a role. Even admirers ask: Does the country really want to go from Bush to Clinton to Bush to Clinton, potentially for 28 years? Or return to the political wars of the 1990s?

The regrettable thing is, too little time in this campaign has been spent acknowledging the past eight years that Clinton has spent representing New York in the U.S. Senate. She has moved beyond those harshly partisan times. She has worked effectively with Democrats and Republicans, even those who once pushed for the impeachment of her husband. She has won praise from the Pentagon for her work on the Armed Services Committee.

Many military officers recognize she would be a formidable commander in chief.

Her resilience has deserved more attention, too. Many Clinton watchers point to her grit. There is something larger at work: Her temperament stands out as one of her finest qualities. Lose in a bid for sweeping reform of health care, and Clinton comes back with a program less ambitious but still substantial, achieving broader insurance coverage for children. The 1990s taught lessons, Clinton shedding much self-righteousness, acquiring the skills to navigate successfully in Washington.

Most impressive is her keen intelligence. No candidate in this race, Republican or Democrat, can match her command of issues, foreign and domestic. Consider health care and education, two of the country's highest priorities. Clinton speaks to each with depth and clarity, articulating, say, the value of universal health coverage or ways to repair the troubled student loan program.

This race hardly has left room for fiscal discipline, amid all the promises and plans. Yet Clinton has demonstrated the most restraint. She articulates an approach overseas that involves this country playing a leading role, yet finding ways to work with others, understanding that issues such as combating terrorism, curbing climate change and opening trade require global strategies.

If her vote authorizing war in Iraq has harmed her candidacy in this primary season, she has been the more thoughtful and honest about the road ahead.

Many people in the Barack Obama camp cite his superb campaign organization as evidence of his capacity to do more than deliver inspiring words. They are correct. Obama can point to impressive achievements in the Illinois Senate. He played a leading role via style and substance. He has made a strong start in the U.S. Senate. Yet there remains so much that is uncertain and unformed about Obama. Bill Clinton was looking for a tactical advantage when cautioned that electing Obama would be a ''roll of the dice.'' There is an element of truth in his words.

For many Democrats, obviously, the risk is well worth it. It is hard not to be stirred by his promises of ''change,'' of breaking tired patterns in the halls of Washington. That said, once in office, the words give way to decisions, and all the fine talk loses its luster as a president struggles with deeds.

One frequently noted virtue of Hillary Clinton is that she is battle-tested, ready for whatever the Republicans throw at their opponent. Actually, she is tested in a more telling way. Neither John McCain, nor Barack Obama, nor Hillary Clinton has much direct management experience. Still, of the three, Clinton has been on the scene in the governor's office and in the White House, alert to the pace and the breadth of the job. That makes a difference. She understands well the unique demands of the presidency.

Obama presents himself as a transforming figure. Actually, his campaign approach is familiar, just as his proposals are more conventional, more candy-for-everyone than he suggests, his recent pandering on the trade issue especially disappointing. He is running as the classic outsider. The truth is, Washington won't be changed in a dramatic way. Partisan clashes are expected, even promoted.

If both candidates represent a certain change, one seeking to become the first black president, the other the first woman president, the country is best-served by the president with the knowledge, savvy and temperament to push Washington forward, building coalitions at the political center. Barack Obama carries much promise of doing so. Hillary Clinton is the more proven leader.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Can't we all just get along??

Paul Krugman hits the issue on the head again today in his Column:
The bitterness of the fight for the Democratic nomination is, on the face of it, bizarre. Both candidates still standing are smart and appealing. Both have progressive agendas (although I believe that Hillary Clinton is more serious about achieving universal health care, and that Barack Obama has staked out positions that will undermine his own efforts). Both have broad support among the party’s grass roots and are favorably viewed by Democratic voters.

Supporters of each candidate should have no trouble rallying behind the other if he or she gets the nod.

Why, then, is there so much venom out there?

I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody. I’m not the first to point out that the Obama campaign seems dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality.


I'm sorry, but there just aren't enough significant policy differences between our two leading candidates for there to be this kind of intensity and antagonism. I am a strong supporter of Senator Clinton, but if Obama is the nominee, I will support him strongly as well. We all need to agree that we need a Democrat in the White House. I expect Obama's supporters to return the favor. To not do so reveals a selfishness and a lack of understanding of the political situation in this country. It reminds me of the catastrophic mistake made by left-leaning voters in 2000 to turn their backs on Al Gore, and look what that wrought.

We've already had Barack stating publicly that his supporters "might not support her in the fall," and Michelle Obama said in an ABC interview that she might not be able to bring herself to vote for Hillary. What is this nonsense? Could it be policy based or is it really just about personalities and pettiness. I keep hearing Bill Clinton talk about all the great choices in this primary season and how they would all make great presidents. Imagine the outburst of Clinton-hating that would occur if Bill said he may not be able to support Barack in the fall??? This brings me to another excerpt from Krugman's column about 'Clinton rules' that the Obama supporters better keep in mind, because the MSM will turn them in to 'Obama rules' soon enough if he is the nominee or President at some point:

What’s particularly saddening is the way many Obama supporters seem happy with the application of “Clinton rules” — the term a number of observers use for the way pundits and some news organizations treat any action or statement by the Clintons, no matter how innocuous, as proof of evil intent . . .

During the current campaign, Mrs. Clinton’s entirely reasonable remark that it took L.B.J.’s political courage and skills to bring Martin Luther King Jr.’s dream to fruition was cast as some kind of outrageous denigration of Dr. King.

And the latest prominent example came when David Shuster of MSNBC, after pointing out that Chelsea Clinton was working for her mother’s campaign — as adult children of presidential aspirants often do — asked, “doesn’t it seem like Chelsea’s sort of being pimped out in some weird sort of way?” Mr. Shuster has been suspended, but as the Clinton campaign rightly points out, his remark was part of a broader pattern at the network.

I call it Clinton rules, but it’s a pattern that goes well beyond the Clintons. For example, Al Gore was subjected to Clinton rules during the 2000 campaign: anything he said, and some things he didn’t say (no, he never claimed to have invented the Internet), was held up as proof of his alleged character flaws.

For now, Clinton rules are working in Mr. Obama’s favor. But his supporters should not take comfort in that fact.

For one thing, Mrs. Clinton may yet be the nominee — and if Obama supporters care about anything beyond hero worship, they should want to see her win in November.

For another, if history is any guide, if Mr. Obama wins the nomination, he will quickly find himself being subjected to Clinton rules. Democrats always do.


That's it for now. I'd love to write more about the sexist coverage at MSNBC, but I'll save that for another day.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Every Vote Counts!

If you think that a single vote can't make a difference (do people STILL think that after all the close elections in recent years?, take a look at this:

Dead heat: Obama and Clinton split the Syracuse vote 50-50

February 7, 2008

In the city of Syracuse, the strangest thing happened in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama received the exact same number of votes, according to unofficial Board of Election results.

Clinton: 6,001.

Obama: 6,001.

"Wow, that is odd," said Jay Biba, Clinton's Central New York campaign coordinator. "I never heard of that in my life."

The odds of Clinton and Obama tying were less than one in 1 million, said Syracuse University mathematics Professor Hyune-Ju Kim.

"It's almost impossible," said Kim, who analyzed the statewide and citywide votes.

Lisa Daly, Obama's Syracuse campaign coordinator, said she thought a mistake had been made when she was first told the tally by the Board of Elections.

What are the chances of it happening?

"Good thing it wasn't a mayor's race," quipped Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.

A total of 12,346 votes were cast for Democrats in the city. Four other Democrats also received votes: John Edwards, 114; Dennis Kucinich, 113; Bill Richardson, 90; and Joe Biden, 27.

Is this going to be what we hear about for the next two months?

Interesting bit from the Sunday Telegraph of London:

As a fluent public speaker, independent-minded wife, devoted mother and professional woman, Michelle Obama has been hailed as an invaluable asset to her husband Barack's mission to capture the Democratic 2008 presidential nomination.
Yet, while her style and performance are winning plaudits on the campaign trail, a little-reported business interest of Mrs Obama's has opened her husband up to one of the criticisms that politicians fear most - the taint of hypocrisy

She is taking a break from her main job, as a well-remunerated Chicago hospital executive, to campaign for her husband. But she has just been re-elected to the board of an Illinois food-processing company, a position she took up two years ago to gain experience of the private sector.
And the biggest customer for the pickles and peppers produced by Treehouse Foods is the retail giant Wal-Mart, the world's largest corporation and the bĂȘte noire of American liberals, including Sen Obama, for its employment practices, most notably its refusal to recognise trade unions.
As the Illinois senator prepared to join the presidential fray late last year, he threw his weight behind the union-backed campaign against Wal-Mart. He declared that there was a "moral responsibility to stand up and fight" the company and "force them to examine their own corporate values".
According to the couple's tax returns, Mrs Obama earned $51,200 for her work as a non-executive director on Treehouse's board last year, on top of the $271,618 salary she was paid as a vice-president of the University of Chicago Hospitals.

She also received 7,500 Treehouse stock options, worth a further $72,375, as she did the previous year, when she banked a $45,000 salary from the company.
The apparent contradiction between Sen Obama's political calculation to join the Wal-Mart-bashing lobby, and his wife's profitable role with a company that makes money from Wal-Mart, is being closely scrutinised by "opposition" research teams working for rival White House candidates


Now, Hillary Clinton once served on the board of Wal-mart, where she asserts she fought for workers rights. I found the piece above of interest as an example of the kinds of opposition research, journalistic 'digging' and attacks we could be in for over the coming weeks, and certainly in a general election.

Monday, February 04, 2008

going into Super-Duper-Tuesday

Some good analysis from NCEC. Two pieces worth mentioning, the first shows how well Hillary did in Florida (despite the lack of delegates 1.7 million voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary:

More than 1.7 million Democratic voters cast ballots in Tuesday's primary, the largest presidential turnout in the state's history, exceeding the previous 1976 high by more than 400,000 votes and more than doubling the 2004 turnout and tripling the 2000 turnout. The winner, Senator Hillary Clinton, amassed more votes than did any previous Democratic contender, including two past southern presidents -- Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. Read more


NCEC also reports that going into S-D-T, the race is tightening even here in NJ, where Hillary's lead is down to 6 points. Obama is in the state for a major rally today, and Chelsea is stumping for mom at a famous diner here in North Jersey.
As we approach Super Tuesday, it is extremely hazardous to formulate predictions. Here is what we do know: The national polls show an ever-tightening race. Obama has drawn close to the margin of error with Clinton . Moreover, a poll in New Jersey , released today by Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and Al Quinlan, revealed that the Clinton margin is down to 6%.

We should anticipate something of a mixed verdict on Tuesday. While Senator Clinton is likely to carry New York , and is favored in California and New Jersey by diminished margins, and is also expected to carry Arkansas , Senator Obama is thought to be ahead in Alabama , Georgia , Kansas , and his home state of Illinois . A state to watch is Missouri , with a large African-American vote, and a proximity to Illinois . The winner there, in a quintessentially red state, will boost either candidate. Read more